Changes to Sea Surface Temperatures and Vertical Wind Shear and Their Influence on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Caribbean and the Main Developing Region

Sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear are essential to tropical cyclone formation. TCs need warm SSTs low for genesis. Increasing decreasing VWS influences storm development. This work analyzes SST trends the Caribbean, surrounding region, Atlantic hurricane main developing region from 1982–2020. Storm intensity increases significantly during this period. Annual seasonal show that regional in MDR warming annually at 0.0219 °C yr−1 and, per season, 0.0280 yr−1. Simultaneously, decreases late rainfall 0.056 m/s 0.0167 Caribbean area. The Warm Pool is expanding 0.51 km2 decade, increasing upper atmospheric winds driving changes. Correlations of large-area averages do not significant relationships between TC intensity, frequency, SSTs/VWS LRS. observed changes appear be associated with impacting Plain Language Abstract: Tropical (TC) formation requires ocean waters shear. Changes sea anomalies understanding development intensification. ability forecast vital human lives livelihoods. (SSTs) (VWS) areas, (MDR). We found SSTs, shears, an (AWP), increased season.